December 19th, 2022

Recent Significant Dollar Appreciation against the Yen,
and Implications for the Japanese and Global Economies

The Institute for International Monetary Affairs hosted the following webinar titled "Recent Significant Dollar Appreciation against the Yen, and Implications for the Japanese and Global Economies".

In 2022, the dollar-yen exchange rate has appreciated to the 150-yen level, the highest level in 32 years. It has been pointed out that behind this drastic fluctuation, there may be various factors such as the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy and structural changes in the global economy, in addition to differences in the monetary policy stances between Japan and other countries. In this webinar, we discussed these various factors, issues and problems in the Japanese and global economies that could be seen through these factors, and the outlook for the foreign exchange market.

In the panelists' presentations, they pointed out that, in addition to the impact of monetary policies such as interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and yield curve control by the Bank of Japan, structural factors such as declining productivity in Japan's manufacturing industry and worsening terms of trade in Japan against a backdrop of rising resource prices due to the Ukrainian conflict and other factors could be the cause of the dollar's significant appreciation and yen depreciation in 2022. In addition, as background to these structural factors, the panelists pointed out the characteristics and problems of Japan's economic and social policies and corporate management strategies. They also pointed out the potential long-term impact of ESG-related investments on Japan's external balance of payments and exchange rates. The panel discussion covered a wide range of issues, including the outlook for the Fed's monetary policy in 2023 and its impact on the U.S. economy, the merits and demerits of the Bank of Japan's extraordinary monetary easing and the future of its monetary policy, whether the global era of low inflation over the past several decades is over, the future of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and the outlook for the dollar/yen exchange rate.  

Date & Time Monday, December 19, 2022, 15:00-16:30 (JST)/1:00-2:30 (EST)
Event Style Virtual Event via Zoom
Language Japanese (Simultaneous English translation available)
Contents Lecture and Panel Discussion

Panelists (in alphabetical order)

Robert Alan Feldman, Ph.D.        Presentation Slides
Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities
Senior Specially Appointed Professor, Tokyo University of Science


Mr. Feldman is currently a Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, where he has worked since 1998. In addition, he is a Senior Specially Appointed Professor at Tokyo University of Science, where he taught from 2017-22. Outside formal work, he was a commentator on Japan’s nightly business program, World Business Satellite, from 2000-2020, and has served on the US-Japan Friendship Commission and as an outside director at Orix Corporation. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and BAs in Economics and in Japanese Studies from Yale. He was an exchange student in Japan in high school. He has published ten books in Japanese, and one in English, and has translated three books from Japanese to English.


Takahide Kiuchi                            Presentation Slides
Executive Economist, Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.


Mr. Kiuchi joined Nomura Research Institute in 1987. He was first assigned to the Japanese Economy Research Office in the Economic Research Department, and ever since he has built a long career as an economist. In 1990 he joined Nomura Research Institute Deutschland (Frankfurt), and then in 1996 he was transferred to Nomura Research Institute America (New York), where he was in charge of analyzing the European and American economies. In 2004 he switched to Nomura Securities, and then became Head of the Economic Research Department and Chief Economist in 2007, making forecasts for the Japanese economy as Head of the Global Research Team. In 2012 he was nominated by the Cabinet and appointed as a Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan. After serving in that role for five years, he took up his current post in July 2017. His publications include “Ijigen kanwa no shinjitsu (The Truth About Unprecedented Easing)” (Nikkei Publishing Inc.).


Ryutaro Kono                               Presentation Slides
Chief (Japan) Economist, Head of Economic Research, BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Ltd.

Photo by Kazutoshi Sumitomo

Mr. Kono is Chief (Japan) economist, responsible for analyzing and forecasting macroeconomic and policy developments in Japan. Prior to joining BNP Paribas, he was a senior economist at Dai-Ichi-Life Research Institute. After graduating with a degree in economics from Yokohama National University, he did a stint with Sumitomo Bank before joining Daiwa International Capital Management as an economist. He has been repeatedly recognized as one of Japan’s top economists (voted No.1 2 consecutive years from 2021 and nine of the last 15 years by Nikkei Veritas) and named top 5 forecasters for FY 2005, 2007, 2012, 2014 2015, 2020 by JCER’s ESP Forecast.



Kazuo Koshi  
Managing Director,  IIMA


Mr Koshi graduated with BA in Faculty of Engineering from the University of Tokyo and joined The Bank of Tokyo, Ltd. (now MUFG Bank, Ltd.) as a graduate in 1985 and graduated with MBA from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania in 1990.  He has accrued 20+ years of work experience in the U.S. since 1995, assigned to managerial positions on the West and East Coasts, on both the business and support sides. 
From May 2017 to May 2020, he was Deputy Regional Executive for the Americas, the second most senior executive of the Americas operations for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (“MUFG”) and MUFG Bank. From July 2019 to May 2020, he was Executive in Charge of Latin America and Canadian Regions, MUFG Bank Ltd. He served as Deputy Chief Operating Officer – International (Deputy COO-I), and Deputy Chief Executive of Global Commercial Banking Business Group (GCB) for MUFG and MUFG Bank, roles he took on in April 2020. He also was Deputy Executive Officer in charge of financial crimes compliance, overseeing the Global Financial Crime Division. He was Chairman of the Boards of MUFG Americas Holding Corporation and MUFG Union Bank, N.A., positions he assumed in April 2020. He also served as Managing Executive Officer of MUFG Bank, Ltd. Since June 2022 he has been Managing Director of the IIMA.